據彭博社3月11日報道，你可能會認為，世界躡手躡腳地走出新冠肺炎疫情，對各國政府和經濟體來說可能只會是個好消息。然而，隨之而來的能源、金屬和農作物價格飆升，突顯出一些國家的優勢和一些國家的脆弱性。

自11月初以來，石油價格已經上漲了75%，主要經濟體為民眾接種了疫苗，并將因疫情而關閉的工廠、停飛的飛機重新啟動。用于汽車、洗衣機和風力渦輪機等各種產品的銅，目前的交易價格水平達到了10年前的水平。5月份以來，食品價格每個月都在上漲。

這對出口商來說是個福音。對于沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯等能源巨頭來說，大量資金的涌入是可喜的，因為它們面臨著國內的挑戰。

交易總是有兩面性的。一些依賴進口的國家正感受到債券和外匯市場的壓力。不斷上漲的燃油價格讓巴西國家石油公司總裁失去了工作，已促使世界第三大原油進口國印度呼吁歐佩克+提高石油產量，并將土耳其的通脹率推高至15%以上。

高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和華爾街一些競爭對手正在談論新的大宗商品“超級周期”。這讓人們擔心，未來可能會出現更具破壞性的通脹，而富裕國家也無法幸免。

英國收回了提高汽油稅的決定，以避免惹怒疲憊不堪的司機。在美國，德克薩斯的石油鉆探者和玉米種植帶的農民可能會從中受益，但包括科技界億萬富翁在內的一些人正受到壓榨。埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)懇請礦商挖出更多的鎳，他需要這種金屬為特斯拉公司(Tesla Inc.)的電動汽車制造電池。

在油價高漲中獲益的贏家:

去年的封鎖和大宗商品價格下跌使澳大利亞遭受巨大沖擊，該國經歷了近30年來的首次衰退。但政府預計2021年會有意外收獲。去年12月，該國最大出口商品鐵礦石的銷量創下歷史新高，而小麥的銷量正接近這一水平，養牛戶也在努力跟上對牛肉的需求。

自去年11月底以來，澳元的表現一直好于其他主要貨幣，兌美元升值5%。

作為全球最大的銅生產國，智利的相對實力在金融市場上也很明顯。比索是過去3個月里唯一對美元升值的拉美主要貨幣，智利股市也是全球最活躍的股市之一。

隨著銅價近十年來首次突破每磅4美元，智利的財政狀況正在改善。2月份銅出口為39億美元，較上月增長42%。

贊比亞也是如此，該國80%的出口收入都依賴于銅。疫情爆發后，該國成為非洲第一個對歐洲債券違約的國家，該國迫切需要資金。

在巴克萊指數跟蹤的大約75個新興市場中，贊比亞的美元債務今年漲幅最大。

去年，所有石油國家都遭受了損失，但伊拉克尤為突出。據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，該國經濟下滑約11%，跌幅超過了幾乎所有其他主要石油出口國。這一局勢給歐佩克帶來了麻煩，伊拉克是歐佩克的第二大石油生產國。包括沙特阿拉伯在內的其他成員國批評巴格達在歐佩克試圖支撐油價時未能充分減產。

隨著原油市場的回暖，伊拉克的月度財政收入從2020年第二季度的約30億美元攀升至50億美元。雖然仍遠低于平衡預算所需的水平，但有明顯的喘息之機。

在油價高漲中不利的輸家:

作為全球最大的小麥買家和石油凈進口國，每當大宗商品價格回升時，埃及都會遭受重創。

到目前為止，埃及設法控制住了通脹。埃及正試圖通過在市場上購買更多的對沖合約來保護自己免受油價上漲的影響，而外國投資者仍在購買本國債券。但根據彭博社對分析師的調查，今年該國國內生產總值(gdp)將僅反彈2.9%，約為全球經濟預期水平的一半。

王佳晶 編譯自 彭博社

The Winners and Losers From Surging Oil and Commodity Prices

You’d think a world tiptoeing its way out of the coronavirus pandemic might only be good news for governments and economies. Yet the consequent surge in the price of energy, metals and crops is highlighting the strengths of some and the vulnerabilities of others.

Oil has climbed 75% since the start of November as major economies vaccinate their populations and reopen after the pandemic shut down factories and grounded planes. Copper, used in everything from cars to washing machines and wind turbines, is trading at levels last seen a decade ago. Food prices have jumped every month since May.

That’s been a boon for exporters. The flood of cash is a welcome relief for energy behemoths such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, whose leaderships have domestic challenges to contend with.

But there are always two sides to a trade. Some countries that depend on imports are feeling the squeeze in bond and currency markets. Rising fuel prices cost the head of Brazil’s state oil company his job. They’ve led India—the world’s third-largest crude importer—to call on the OPEC+ cartel to raise oil production and pushed Turkey’s inflation rate above 15%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and some Wall Street rivals are talking of a new commodities “supercycle.” That’s raising the specter of more damaging inflation down the line—and richer countries aren’t immune, either.

The U.K. government backtracked on raising gasoline tax so as not to rile lockdown-weary drivers. In the U.S., Texan oil drillers and Corn Belt farmers may be benefiting, though others including tech billionaires are being squeezed. Elon Musk has pleaded with miners to dig up more nickel, a metal he needs to make batteries for Tesla Inc.’s electric vehicles.

Winners

Last year’s lockdowns and commodity downturn stung Australia, which experienced its first recession in almost three decades. But the government can expect a windfall in 2021. Sales of iron ore, its top export, hit a record in December, while those of wheat are edging toward the same level and cattle farmers are struggling to keep up with demand for beef.

The Australian dollar has performed better than any other major currency since the end of November, strengthening 5% against the U.S. dollar.

The relative strength of Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, has also been evident in financial markets. The peso is the only major Latin American currency to appreciate against the dollar over the past three months and Chile’s stock market has been among the world’s most buoyant.

With prices of the red metal rising above $4 a pound for the first time in about a decade, Chile’s finances are improving. Copper exports stood at $3.9 billion in February, up 42% from the month before.

Similar can be said for Zambia, which relies on copper for almost 80% of export earnings. The country has been desperate for money after it became the first in Africa to default on its Eurobonds following the onset of the pandemic.

The country bought the local operations of Glencore Plc in January at what’s looking more and more like a favorable price and global investors have started to become more bullish. Zambia’s dollar debt has rallied the most this year among the roughly 75 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg Barclays indexes.

All petrostates suffered last year, but Iraq stood out. Its economy sank around 11%, more than that of almost any other major oil exporter, according to the International Monetary Fund. The government couldn’t pay teachers and civil servants on time and Iraqis took to the streets to rail against power cuts, dilapidated hospitals, crumbling roads and a lack of jobs.

The situation caused problems for OPEC, of which Iraq is the second-biggest oil producer. Other members, including Saudi Arabia, criticized Baghdad for failing to cut output enough as the cartel tried to bolster prices.

As the crude market picked up, Iraq’s monthly fiscal revenue climbed to $5 billion from about $3 billion in the second quarter of 2020. They’re still far below what’s needed to balance the state budget, but there’s clear respite.

Losers

As the world’s biggest buyer of wheat and a net oil importer, Egypt suffers badly whenever commodity prices pick up. It’s also politically sensitive because millions of people depend on subsidized bread. The Arab Spring uprisings a decade ago were triggered in part by increasing food costs and swept long-standing ruler Hosni Mubarak from power.

So far, President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi’s government has managed to keep a lid on inflation. Egypt is trying to protect itself against higher oil costs by buying more hedging contracts in the market, and foreign investors are still purchasing local bonds. But gross domestic product will rebound just 2.9% this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, around half the level expected for the global economy.