據美國鉆井網站2021年3月8日報道，美國鉆井網站的3名定期市場觀察人士近日表示，美國德克薩斯州最近的凍結、石化原料供應緊張以及美國疫情限制的放松，將有助于更好地了解未來幾個月的天然氣需求。在本期“本周油氣市場值得關注的事情”中，請繼續了解他們的解釋和其它見解。

油氣數據公司Validere戰略副總裁馬克·勒·達因說：石化產品的定價正悄然達到多年來的最高紀錄，由于天然氣液體(NGL)產量的減少，這可能會支撐天然氣價格。整個冬季，圍繞汽油價格的傳言不絕如耳，當我們進入平季時，我們應該更好地了解有多少需求存在。

塔爾薩大學柯林斯商學院能源經濟、政策和商務學院院長湯姆·森說：美國原油產量應該會恢復到風暴前的水平，約為1100萬桶/天，而高油價應該會刺激有限但穩定的新鉆井和生產活動。毫無疑問，對德州能源危機的事后分析將迫使所有電力和天然氣公用事業公司——無論它們在哪里——確保它們明年冬天開始時儲存足夠的緊急天然氣供應。4月份是“夏季”天然氣回注季節的開始，這可能在未來7個月支撐天然氣期貨價格。隨著德克薩斯州、密西西比州和康涅狄格州的“重新開放”，市場將密切關注其他州的效仿，這可能導致更多的能源需求。

投資銀行B. Riley Securities的股票研究部高級能源服務和設備分析師Tom Curran說：由于壓力泵在冬季風暴Uri造成的中斷和延遲以后恢復作業，美國在用的壓裂隊伍數會創造新的復蘇新高。2月12日，Primary Vision每周的在用壓力隊伍數達到了上升周期以來的峰值175個，然后，隨著風暴的影響從巴肯地區擴散到美國中部大陸地區，并穿過德克薩斯州南部，在2月19日下降到41個。當我們將提交這些回應時，最近的每周可以獲得的讀數是在2月26日，當時的讀數是140個。在美國油田服務公司Select能源服務公司第4季度業績電話會議上，首席財務官Nick Swyka在公司管理層的開幕致辭中表示：“我們預計今年下半年在用的壓裂隊伍數量將增加到180至200個。”

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Mix of Factors Set to Clarify Natural Gas Demand Outlook

Fallout from the recent Texas freeze, tight petrochemical feedstocks, and the loosening of coronavirus restrictions in the United States should contribute to a better understanding of natural gas demand in the months to come, according to three of Rigzone’s regular market-watchers. Read on for their explanations, along with other insights, in this installment of what to watch this week in the oil and gas markets.

Mark Le Dain, vice president of strategy with the oil and gas data firm Validere: Petchem pricing is quietly reaching multi-year records, and this will likely support gas prices as the respective natural gas liquids (NGL) volumes are pulled out of stream. There has been so much noise around gas pricing through the winter that, as we get into shoulder season, we should get a better sense for how much of this demand there is.

Tom Seng, Director – School of Energy Economics, Policy and Commerce, University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business: U.S. production of crude should return to the pre-storm levels of about 11 million barrels per day (bpd) while higher prices should spur limited, but steady, activity in new drilling and production. The post-mortem on the energy crisis in Texas will, no doubt, force all power and gas utilities – regardless of where they are – to ensure they start next winter with adequate emergency natural gas supplies in storage. April is the start of the “summer” reinjection season which could support natural gas futures prices for the next seven months. With Texas, Mississippi, and Connecticut “re-opening,” the market will be watching for other states to follow suit which could result in more demand for energy.

Tom Curran, Senior Energy Services and Equipment Analyst in Equity Research, B. Riley Securities: As pressure pumpers resume work following the disruptions and delays inflicted by Winter Storm Uri, will the active U.S. frac spread count set a new recovery high. The Primary Vision weekly active count reached an upcycle-to-date peak of 175 on February 12 and then, as the storm’s effects spread from the Bakken into the MidCon and through South Texas, it plunged to 41 on February 19. As we’re submitting these responses, the most recent weekly reading available is for February 26, when the count stood at 140. As part of management’s opening remarks during Select Energy Services’ (NYSE: WTTR) 4Q20 earnings call, CFO Nick Swyka said, “We expect active frac crews to advance toward the 180 to 200 crew count range in the back half of the year.”