據(jù)3月9日今日油價報道，盡管歐佩克+減產(chǎn)的意外延期將布倫特原油價格推高至每桶70美元，但這個一年多來最高的油價水平可能會抑制全球石油需求復蘇，要知道，歐佩克+認為全球石油需求復蘇仍是脆弱的。

在歐佩克上周出人意料地采取行動之后，原油價格的上漲速度比許多預測者一周前的預測的還要快，價格也更高，因為市場預計，隨著需求的恢復，供應將出現(xiàn)短缺。

每桶70美元的油價對石油看漲者、石油公司和大多數(shù)預算依賴石油的歐佩克生產(chǎn)國來說都是好事，但對產(chǎn)油國或石油進口國來說則不是好消息。

此外，Axios的Dion Rabouin指出，油價上漲將給正在從疫情衰退中復蘇的經(jīng)濟體帶來額外的通脹壓力，并推高許多商品和服務的價格，包括美國的機票和進口商品。

歐佩克+在4月基本保持產(chǎn)量不變的直接結果是，俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的小范圍減產(chǎn)豁免，共計15萬桶/天，導致全球各地的汽油價格都將上漲。

汽油價格的上行壓力早在歐佩克+出乎市場意料地提高產(chǎn)量水平和沙特阿拉伯在4月繼續(xù)額外減產(chǎn)100萬桶之前就已經(jīng)開始了。不過，該歐佩克+推遲了減產(chǎn)幅度，令美國平均油價逼近每加侖3美元。

GasBuddy在歐佩克+會議后表示，一方面美國燃料需求復蘇，另一方面原油價格上漲，可能將美國平均油價推升至每加侖3美元以上。

上一次美國全國汽油均價觸及每加侖3美元是在2014年10月。三年前，也就是2018年，美國平均油價接近每加侖2.97美元。

GasBuddy表示，延長減產(chǎn)期限會加劇供需不平衡，如果全球需求繼續(xù)復蘇，油價將面臨更大的上漲壓力。隨著美國汽車司機以疫情開始以來最快的速度恢復加油，經(jīng)濟似乎有可能持續(xù)復蘇。GasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick De Haan表示:“我預測美國平均油價有70%的可能性將達到每加侖3美元，這是自2014年以來從未見過的水平，主要原因是歐佩克反對提高石油產(chǎn)量。”

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國汽油需求周五較前一周增加4.9%，為疫情開始以來最高水準。De Haan在推特上表示，自2月20日以來，美國汽油需求從未出現(xiàn)過周環(huán)比下降。

伍德曼肯茲宏觀石油副總裁安-路易斯·希特爾表示：“風險在于，這些高油價將抑制暫時的全球復蘇。但沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒阿齊茲王子堅定地表示，歐佩克+必須了解需求上升的具體跡象，然后再開始生產(chǎn)。”

高企的油價也將對通脹構成強大的上行壓力，通脹可能加速超過美聯(lián)儲的目標和全球其他貨幣政策決策者的目標。

在歐佩克+出人意料的舉動下，歐佩克事實上的領導者、全球最大石油出口國沙特阿拉伯押注于過度收緊市場，以在短期內(nèi)獲得更高的石油收入，押注于美國頁巖油這次將著眼于更高的利潤而不是產(chǎn)量的預期，這與近年來任何一次油價飆升都不同。

超過14個月來最高的油價可能會損害全球石油需求的復蘇，這一跡象表明，沙特希望在采取行動放松減產(chǎn)之前，全球石油需求能顯著改善。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

$70 Oil May Cause Slowdown In Demand Recovery

While the unexpected rollover of the OPEC+ production cuts sent Brent Crude prices up to $70 a barrel, the highest oil prices in more than a year could dampen global oil demand recovery, which the OPEC+ group itself still sees as fragile.

After the surprise OPEC+ move last week, crude oil prices rallied faster and higher than many forecasters had predicted just a week ago as the market expects supply shortages amid recovering demand.

Oil at $70 a barrel is good for oil bulls, oil companies, and the oil-dependent budgets of most OPEC+ producers, but it is not good news for prices at the pump or oil-importing nations, including the key demand growth drivers China and India.

In addition, higher oil prices will put additional inflationary pressure on economies recovering from the pandemic slump, and raise the prices of many goods and services, including airplane tickets and imported goods in the United States, Dion Rabouin of Axios notes.

The immediate result of OPEC+ keeping production basically unchanged in April—with small exemptions for Russia and Kazakhstan totaling 150,000 bpd—will be higher gasoline prices everywhere, from the United States to India.

The upward pressure on gasoline prices had already begun even before the OPEC+ group surprised the market by rolling over production levels and Saudi Arabia keeping its extra 1-million-bpd cut into April.

The alliance's delayed easing of the cuts, however, puts $3 a gallon national U.S. average price within sight.

Recovering fuel demand in the United States on the one hand, and the rallying crude oil prices, on the other hand, could push the national average to above $3 a gallon by Memorial Day, GasBuddy said after the OPEC+ meeting last week.

The last time the U.S. national average hit $3 per gallon was in October 2014. Three years ago, in 2018, the national average came close to the $3 threshold, at $2.97 per gallon.

"Extending the production cuts maintains a growing imbalance between demand and supply, and puts more pressure on oil prices to rise, should global demand continue to recover. A continued recovery seems likely, led by American motorists filling their tanks at the fastest pace since the pandemic began. I predict the national average now has 70% odds of reaching $3 per gallon, a level not seen since 2014, primarily due to OPEC's opposition to raising oil production," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

According to Pay with GasBuddy data, U.S. gasoline demand increased on Friday by 4.9 percent week over week, to its highest level since the pandemic began. U.S. gasoline demand hasn't seen a daily week-on-week drop since February 20, De Haan tweeted on Saturday.

"The risk is these higher prices will dampen the tentative global recovery. But the Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz, is adamant OPEC+ must watch for concrete signs of a demand rise before he moves on production," Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said, commenting on the OPEC+ rollover.

The high oil prices are also expected to put strong upward pressure on inflation, which could accelerate beyond the Fed's targets and the targets of other monetary policy decision-makers around the world.

With the surprise OPEC+ move, OPEC's de facto leader and top global oil exporter Saudi Arabia is betting on overtightening the market to reap higher oil revenues in the short term, gambling on expectations that U.S. shale will look at higher profits instead of production this time, unlike in any of the previous oil price spikes in recent years.

The highest oil prices in more than 14 months could hurt global oil demand recovery, the very indicator that the Saudis want significantly improved before moving to ease the production cuts.