據彭博社9月27日報道，石油生產國可能會在今年年底前再次攤牌，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯等石油大國在如何應對石油需求復蘇停滯不前的問題上持有不同觀點。

歐洲各地對旅行和社交聚會的重新限制，加上國家對企業的支持計劃逐漸減少，對原油需求產生了嚴重影響。5月歐佩克+日產量創紀錄地減少970萬桶，而現在，石油生產國們開始考慮放松對產出的限制。而他們意見的不一致，將帶來嚴重的市場危機。

過去兩個月里，國際能源署（IEA）將原油日產量預期下調了40萬桶，而歐佩克則將日產量預期下調了50萬桶，未來可能還會進一步下調。IEA石油工業和市場部門主管尼爾?阿特金森(Neil Atkinson)周四表示，該機構對下一份月度報告的需求預測更有可能是下調而不是上調。

包括Emily Ashford和Paul Horsnell在內的渣打銀行分析師上周在一份報告中稱，石油需求面臨的最大阻力來自貿易的減少、經濟疲軟以及企業關閉和失業的連鎖反應。

在石油需求本應復蘇的時候，又開始出現逆轉。歐洲病毒感染病例增多，引發了新一輪的在家工作的建議和對社會活動的限制，這勢必與經濟支持措施相沖突。美國的石油消費也面臨著類似的障礙，政府根據《冠狀病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法》提供的支持將于9月30日結束。亞洲也未能幸免，據渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)的數據顯示，泰國是唯一一個石油需求接近“v”型復蘇的國家。

當然，這不全是需求的問題。來自歐佩克國家的額外供應空間還取決于來自其他地區的石油供應量，而在這方面的不確定性因素與需求的不確定性因素一樣多。

人們擔心，美國頁巖油的產量將在未來幾周或幾個月里再次大幅下降。Emily Ashford警告稱，目前美國的油井完井量非常低，可能很快就會出現月度產量大幅下滑。

美國能源信息署(EIA)公布的更為強勁的月度數據顯示，今年美國國內原油產量降幅比上周初步數據顯示的更大。如果美國產量再次下降，將為歐佩克+增加產量留出更多空間。

就連全球最大的石油交易商，像維托爾集團(Vitol Group)、托克集團(Trafigura Group)和摩科瑞能源集團(Mercuria Energy Group)等，這些石油巨頭對未來幾個月的石油前景也沒有統一看法。摩科瑞首席執行官馬爾科?杜蘭德表示，歐佩克正計劃從明年1月開始開采我們不需要的額外石油。托克集團的高管們很悲觀，但維托爾集團較其競爭對手更為樂觀。

由于存在諸多的不確定性，歐佩克+集團內部出現的緊張局勢也就不足為奇了。對沙特阿拉伯來說，最重要的是要防止油價下滑，該國能源部長表示，歐佩克+將“先發制人”，阻止供應超過需求，讓石油交易商“盡可能地緊張”。

俄羅斯總理亞歷山大?諾瓦克(Alexander Novak)則更為謹慎，希望避免反復修改一份設定到2022年4月底的生產目標的協議。根據該協議，該集團將從1月初開始將其總產量再增加200萬桶/天，而諾瓦克更愿意在做出改變決定之前盡可能地多觀察市場情況，保持謹慎。

值得注意的是，今年3月份，歐佩克內部也曾出現過類似的分歧，當時俄羅斯希望維持現狀，而沙特阿拉伯尋求進一步減產，這引發了一場短暫的“混戰”，導致油價跌破每桶20美元。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil Heavyweights Look Ready for a Showdown

Oil producers could be set for another showdown before the end of the year, with heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia holding different views on how to approach the halting recovery in oil demand.

Renewed restrictions on travel and social gatherings across Europe, along with the tapering of state support packages for companies, are having a chilling effect on demand for crude, just as the OPEC+ group of oil producers, who cut production by a record 9.7 million barrels a day in May, begin to contemplate the next easing of limits on their output. We should all remember what happened last time they couldn’t agree on what to do.

The International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have both resumed cutting their forecasts for this year’s oil demand. In the past two months, the IEA has trimmed its forecast by 400,000 barrels a day, while OPEC has reduced its own by 500,000 barrels. And they may have further yet to fall. Neil Atkinson, the IEA’s Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division, said at a Bloomberg event on Thursday that the agency is “more likely to make a downgrade than an upgrade” to demand forecasts in its next monthly report.

The biggest headwind to oil demand comes from reduced trade, weakened economies and the knock-on effects of business closings and job losses, Standard Chartered analysts, including Emily Ashford and Paul Horsnell, said in a report last week.

At a time when oil demand was meant to be recovering, it now seems to be going into reverse again. A new round of work-from-home advice and restrictions on social activities, triggered by a rise in virus infections in Europe, are set to collide with a reduction in economic support measures. U.S. oil consumption faces similar obstacles, with government support under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act coming to an end on September 30. Even Asia isn’t immune, with Thailand the only country that’s close to seeing a V-shaped recovery in oil demand, according to Standard Chartered.

Of course, it’s not all about demand. The room available for additional supply from the OPEC+ countries also depends on how much oil is coming from elsewhere. And there is at least as much uncertainty on this front as there is with demand.

There are fears — or hopes, if you’re a rival oil producer — that output from U.S. shale deposits is set for another big drop in the coming weeks and months. Well completions in the U.S. are now so low that large monthly declines in production may be imminent, Emily Ashford warned last week.

More robust monthly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that this year’s drop in domestic crude production has been both steeper and deeper than their preliminary weekly data suggested. Another drop in U.S. production would leave more room for the OPEC+ group to raise its own output.

Even the world's biggest oil traders — including Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Mercuria Energy Group — don't have a united view on the outlook for oil over the coming months. Mercuria co-founder and CEO Marco Durnand says “we do not need the extra oil” that the OPEC+ group is planning to pump from January. Trafigura executives are also downbeat. But Vitol has a starkly more bullish view than its rivals.

With so much uncertainty, it’s little surprise that tensions are emerging within the OPEC+ group.

Saudi Arabia wants, above all, to prevent oil prices from slipping, and its energy minister says the OPEC+ producer group will be “proactive and preemptive” to stop supply from running ahead of demand. He wants to make oil traders “as jumpy as possible.”

His Russian counterpart Alexander Novak is more cautious, wanting to avoid repeatedly revising a deal that sets out production targets to the end of April 2022. That agreement sees the group adding another 2 million barrels a day to their collective production from the beginning of January (see the chart above), and Novak prefers to wait as long as possible before making a decision to alter that.

We’ve all seen where a standoff between the two big beasts of the OPEC+ group can lead. There was a similar disagreement back in March, with Russia wanting to preserve the status quo and Saudi Arabia seeking deeper output cuts, that sparked a brief production free-for-all that helped push oil prices below $20 a barrel. Nobody wants a repeat of that.