據(jù)9月10日Investing.com報道，油價正在走高，但仍未達到讓石油行業(yè)恢復元氣所需的反彈助力水平，尤其是在最近油價大幅下跌的情況下。不過令人鼓舞的是，隨著價格走高，價差有所收窄，但12月20日/ 12月21日WTI的期貨溢價仍然堅挺，這是最不具前瞻性的預期。

但在目前的價格水平上，貿(mào)易公司可能會開始考慮購買以備未來交割，并可能開始競購離岸儲存。在油輪費率如此低迷的情況下，如果歐佩克沒有進一步干預，且油輪利率保持有利，貿(mào)易公司的需求可能提供強勁的支撐。

原油價格下跌的催化劑還包括股票市場的拋售，尤其是特斯拉（Tesla）的科技股似乎出現(xiàn)了泡沫，反原油交易的縮影，本周大幅下跌。因此，當股市再次飆升時，油價將會推高，這也是有道理的，而這正是一夜之間發(fā)生的事情。不過，投資者可能需要填補周二納斯達克市場的空白，才能推動油價進一步上漲。

當然，人們對新冠肺炎疫情的擔憂仍然存在，需要采取微妙的平衡措施，以使經(jīng)濟恢復到新的正常狀態(tài)，并控制北半球可能出現(xiàn)的病例上升。

在這方面，阿斯利康昨天暫停了所有疫苗臨床試驗，這無疑擾亂了石油市場，過去一個月，石油市場開始對疫苗成功變得樂觀。據(jù)英國《金融時報》報道，阿斯利康公司的新冠肺炎病毒試驗可能在下周恢復，疫苗前途明朗。在一名英國參與者出現(xiàn)不明原因的疾病后，這家制藥公司暫停了疫苗試驗。

事實上，布倫特原油超45美元/桶的價格已經(jīng)提前復蘇，因為大部分低空看漲的倉位已經(jīng)被消費殆盡。同時，交易員們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己處于牛市的盡頭，還一頭撞上了最大的價格障礙之一，即“夏末”季節(jié)性需求的減弱。因此，市場進入了不能上升必須下降的模式，因為獲利回吐。

盡管如此，由于今年夏天美國的駕車和旅行處于歷史上的低迷水平，需求方面受到的影響可以從疲軟的煉油利潤率中看出，這促使沙特10月份減產(chǎn)。在美國達成刺激協(xié)議或美國就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)更廣泛改善之前，情況不太可能好轉(zhuǎn)。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

Asia Session: Oil Trading Higher, But Still Not The Rallying Cry Needed

Oil is trading higher, but still not the rallying cry needed to get the oil complex back on its feet, especially in the wake of the latest precipitous falls. Encouragingly though, as prices shift higher, spreads have tightened a bit, but the contango remains solid with the WTI Dec20/Dec21 -3.62 and provides the poorest forward-looking optics of them all.

But at these levels, trading houses might begin to think about buying for future delivery and could start bidding for offshore storage, which is typically the case when tanker rates are as depressed as they are right now. The slope and curve economics are not quite there at the moment, but in the absence of further OPEC interventions, should the curve steepen more and tanker rates remain favorable, trading house demand could provide a keen level of support.

The catalyst for the fall in crude has also been the sell-off in equity markets and especially what appears to have been a bubble in tech stocks where Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), the epitome of the anti-crude oil play, tumbled massively this week. So it would make sense also that as stock markets surge again, oil prices will push higher, and that's exactly what happened overnight. Still, investors may need to fill Tuesday's Nasdaq gap to get oil prices kicking into a larger gear.

In the background, of course, continues to be COVID concerns and the delicate balancing act needed to return economies to a new normal and manage the likely rise in cases in the northern hemisphere when social activities move indoors, and the virus could spread more aggressively.

In this regard, AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) pausing all vaccine clinical trials yesterday certainly roiled the oil markets that had started to become more optimistic about a vaccine over the last month. However, there is light at the end of the vaccine tunnel as AstraZeneca's COVID-19 trials may resume next week, according to the Financial Times. The drugmaker had suspended its vaccine trials after an unexplained illness in a UK participant. And this pivot is being consumed on the positive side of the ledger.

In reality, prices above Brent $45/bbl were getting ahead of the recovery as most of the low hanging bullish fruit had been consumed. And traders simultaneously found themselves at the end of the bullish runway running headlong long into one of the biggest price impediments of them all, the "end of summer" seasonality waning demand. So markets shifted into what can't go up must go down mode as profit-taking initially got the ball rolling downhill, then all the rest of the knowns pilled on top.

Still, with driving and travel in the US at a historically depressed level this past summer, the impacted demand side can be seen in the weak refining margin environment prompting the cut in Saudi OSPs for October. And the thought here is that things are unlikely to turn better until we get a US stimulus agreement or broader improvements are seen in the US employment data.