據油價網2020年9月8日紐約報道，美國證券銀行公布的最新統計數據顯示，由于航空燃油消費仍將遠低于去年的水平，全球石油需求將需要3年時間才能恢復到疫情大流行前的水平。

BofAS在TradeArabia發布的每周能源報告中說，雖然公路燃料需求已恢復到接近疫情爆發前的水平，但航空燃料需求仍難以大幅增長，因為與疫情爆發前的“正常”水平相比，航空旅行仍顯著下降。

來自全球航班跟蹤服務公司Flightradar24上周公布的統計數據顯示，8月份全球商業航班的增長比2019年8月的水平低了45.2%，而且增速比6、7月份要慢得多。

BofAS的分析師表示，在有效疫苗或治療方法推出之前，航空旅行不會出現反彈。然而，根據世界銀行的說法，一種有效的疫苗仍然需要12到18個月的時間才能推出。

BofAS說，如果疫苗在2021年底推出，到2022年航空旅行將恢復到危機前水平的75%，到2023年將恢復到典型消費水平的90%。

就較長期而言，這家美國銀行預計全球石油需求將在2030年達到大約1.05億桶/天的峰值，原因是電動汽車在輕型汽車銷售中所占份額不斷上升。BofAS的基本設想是，到2030年前，電動汽車將占輕型汽車銷量的34%，到2050年前占95%。

根據BofAS的說法，氫燃料電池汽車也可能取代部分運輸的石油需求，特別是如果綠色氫價格大幅下跌的話。

國際能源署(IEA)能源市場和安全主管Keisuke Sadamori本周早些時候說，在短期內，由于煉油利潤率疲軟、航空燃料需求缺乏復蘇以及全球經濟增長的不確定性，全球石油需求復蘇似乎已停滯不前。

需求復蘇步履蹣跚的一個跡象是，世界最大石油出口國沙特阿拉伯下調了10月份出口亞洲和美國原油的官方售價。

荷蘭國際集團(ING)策略師沃倫?帕特森和姚文宇周二表示：“很明顯，這表明市場收緊的速度沒有許多人預期的那么快，供應在小幅走高，需求顯然在放緩。”

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下:

Global Oil Demand To Return To Pre-Crisis Levels In Three Years

It will take three years for global oil demand to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, as jet fuel consumption continues to trend much lower than last year’s levels, according to Bank of America Securities.

While road fuel demand has recovered to nearly pre-COVID-19 levels, aviation fuel demand is struggling to take off materially as air travel is still significantly down compared to ‘normal’ levels from before the pandemic, BofAS said in a weekly energy reported carried by TradeArabia.

Air travel will not rebound until an effective vaccine or cure for COVID-19 is rolled out, the BofAS analysts said. An effective vaccine, however, is still 12 to 18 months down the line, according to the bank.

Data from global flight tracking service Flightradar24 showed last week that in August, commercial flights made it up to 45.2 percent below August 2019 levels, but grew at a much slower pace than June and July.

If a vaccine is rolled out at the end of 2021, air travel would recover to 75 percent of pre-crisis levels in 2022 and to 90 percent of the typical consumption level in 2023, BofAS says.

For the longer term, the bank sees global oil demand peaking at some 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, due to the rising share of electric vehicles (EVs) in light duty vehicle sales. BofAS’ base-case scenario is EVs taking a 34-percent share of light vehicle sales by 2030 and 95 percent of sales by 2050.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could also displace part of oil demand for transportation, especially if green hydrogen prices fall materially, according to BofAS.

In the near term, oil demand recovery appears to have stalled, due to weak refining margins, a lack of recovery in jet fuel demand, and uncertainties over global economic growth, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Director for Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori, said earlier this week.

In a sign that demand recovery is faltering, the world’s top oil exporter Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices for crude oil for October.

“Clearly this suggests that the market is not tightening as quickly as many had anticipated, with supply edging higher, and with demand clearly faltering,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Tuesday.