據路透社9月3日報道，美國石油業可能在7月和8月度過了低谷期，9月或10月鉆井速度將開始上升，2021年3月或4月產量將開始回升。

自4月底觸及低點以來，美國原油期貨近月價格在過去19周逐步上漲。在過去的30年里，隨著期貨價格的變化，鉆井活動的變化通常會平均延遲4-5個月(15-20周)，產量的變化通常會延遲9-12個月。

價格變化導致的鉆井延遲，可以解釋為企業重新評估鉆井計劃、鉆機合約、將其移至井場、安裝并開始鉆探所需的時間。由于達到目標井深、封井、固井、壓裂、安裝井口設備、流量測試、將油井連接到集油系統以及開始商業生產等方面的時間需要，產量的最終變化還會進一步推遲。

每一口井和每一個周期都略有不同，但在過去三十年的期貨價格周期中，鉆井速度和產量呈現出一種固定的順序和標準的滯后期限。

鑒于油價在19周前跌至周期性低點，此后又翻了一番，很可能鉆井速度現在已經接近或超過了當前周期的低點。事實上，據油田服務公司貝克休斯(Baker Hughes)的數據，上周美國有180個鉆井平臺在鉆探石油，高于兩周前172個鉆井平臺的當前周期低點。

在3月中旬至7月中旬期間，活躍的石油鉆井平臺數量下降了近75%，但在過去七周內基本穩定，這可能表明鉆井周期的最低點已經到來。

今年最后幾個月，隨著4月份以來的油價上漲開始滲透到商業決策和合同中，鉆井平臺數量可能會開始呈上升趨勢。相比之下，產量可能會持續下降幾個月，直到2020年底或2021年初，然后再次回升。

自然產量下降將減少在疫情爆發前開始生產的油井的產量，而自疫情爆發后鉆井速度下降意味著產量不會完全被取代。最終，更高的價格和更高的鉆井速度將導致新產量彌補舊產量的損失，總產量將企穩并開始回升。

確切的時間顯然取決于價格走勢，但產出最可能觸底回升的時間是2020年第四季度末或2021年第一季度。

自4月份以來的油價上漲表明，將需要更多的鉆井活動和更多的新油井產量來穩定產量，并提供必要的現金流。近幾周來，美國原油期貨價格一直穩定在每桶40至45美元左右，這一表明，在這一區間產出將保持穩定。但如果油價繼續攀升至每桶50美元或更高水平，鉆井速度將進一步加快，從2021年下半年開始，產量將有更大的增長。

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Column: U.S. oil drilling set to start rising after cycle turns

The U.S. oil industry probably passed the low point in the current cycle in July and August, with drilling rates set to start increasing from September or October and production turning up from March or April 2021.

Since hitting a low in late April, when the coronavirus epidemic was raging and lockdowns were most stringent, front-month U.S. oil futures prices have progressively risen for the last 19 weeks.

Over the last 30 years, changes in futures prices have typically been followed by changes in drilling with an average delay of 4-5 months (15-20 weeks) and changes in output with an overall delay of 9-12 months.

The delay from changes in prices to drilling can be explained by the time needed for businesses to re-evaluate drilling programmes, contract rigs, move them to the well site, rig them up and start boring.

Further delays to final changes in production are due to the time needed to reach target well depth, case and cement the well, fracture the formation, install wellhead equipment, flow test, link the well up to gathering systems and start commercial output.

Every well and every cycle is slightly different, but in the last three decades cycles in futures prices, drilling rates and production have followed each other in a standard sequence with fairly standard lags.

Given that oil prices hit a cyclical low 19 weeks ago, doubling in the meantime, it is very likely drilling rates are now near or beyond their low point for the current cycle (tmsnrt.rs/3jQFqj9).

In fact, there were 180 rigs drilling for oil last week in the United States, up from a current-cycle low of 172 two weeks earlier, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.

The number of active oil rigs has been broadly stable for the last seven weeks, after plunging almost 75% between mid-March and mid-July, which may indicate the low point of the drilling cycle has been reached.

The rig count is likely to start trending higher over the last few months of the year as the rise in oil prices since April starts to filter through into business decisions and contracting.

By contrast, production is likely to continue trending lower for several months more until the end of 2020 or early 2021 before turning higher again.

Natural declines will reduce output from wells that started producing before the epidemic, while the reduced rate of drilling since then means it will not be completely replaced.

Eventually, higher prices and higher drilling rates will cause new production to make up for the loss of old output and total production will stabilise and start increasing again.

The precise timing obviously depends on the course of prices, but the most likely time frame for output to hit a trough and turn higher is towards the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 or in the first quarter of 2021.

The rise in prices since April is a signal more drilling and more new well output will be needed to stabilise production and will provide the necessary cash flow.

The fact U.S. oil futures prices have been steadying around $40-45 per barrel in recent weeks indicates this is the range expected to stabilise output.

But if prices continue climbing to $50 or more, drilling will accelerate further, generating a larger production increase from the second half of 2021 onwards.