據ETEnergyWorld 9月2日新德里報道，供應中斷以及隨之而來的未來不確定性，往往是最有力的變革催化劑。對于老牌航空公司而言，供應中斷預示著廉價航空公司的到來，正如Uber和Airbnb等共享資產平臺的引入是交通和旅游業變革的預兆。碳氫化合物行業，特別是煉油廠，長期以來一直抵制變革，盡管它們面臨著電動車、氣候行動、國際海事組織(IMO)的規定以及向新燃料標準(如BS VI)的過渡等方面的阻力。然而，后疫情時代的不確定性及其對燃料需求波動的長期影響，最終可能會邁向一個人們期待已久的真正的 "數字煉油廠"。

今年4月，在產品庫存成本激增的情況下，疫情見證了民用燃料需求同比下降46%的空前局面。隨著多地開放局部商業流動，盡管7月對運輸燃料平均需求量上升至COVID前的85%左右，但必須承認，燃料需求正在“復蘇”，但不一定是“恢復”。我們很可能會繼續看到不同地方反復停航，比如最近一次的北京停飛，導致50%以上的航班取消，學校重新停課，交通擁堵狀況迅速改善。對于一個見證歷史上需求偏差在極窄范圍內的行業來說，它將需要一個全新的DNA來應對未來大幅放大的峰值和低谷。

只是可以肯定的是，當數字化和人工智能面臨多個業務變量、動態變化和高度不確定性時，它們就變得至關重要。展望未來，有幾個重大的根本性變化有望在燃料領域中創造出這樣一個環境。

沈韓曄 摘譯自 ETEnergyWorld

原文如下：

Opinion: Can the Covid crisis usher in the age of the digital refinery

Disruptions, and subsequent future uncertainties, are often the most forceful catalysts for change. For established airlines the disruption was the advent of no-frills low cost airlines, as was introduction of shared-asset platforms such as Uber and Airbnb the harbinger of change for mobility and travel industries. The hydrocarbon sector, and specifically refineries, have long resisted change, even as they have faced headwinds in the form of electric vehicles, climate action, IMO regulations and, closer to home, transition to new fuel standards like BS VI, among others. The uncertainties of the post Covid world, with its long ranged implication on fuel demand volatility, however, may finally bring in a much awaited move towards true ‘digital refineries’.

Covid-19 oversaw an unprecedented domestic fuel demand slippage of 46 percent in April on YoY basis amidst surging product inventory costs. While the average demand for transportation fuels increased in July to around 85 per cent of the pre-COVID levels as multiple cities opened up to localized business mobility, it is critical to acknowledge that the fuel demand is “recovering”, but not necessarily “recovered”. We will likely continue to see repeated shutdowns in different locales, such as the most recent one in Beijing, which caused a cancellation of more than 50 per cent of flights, schools to be re-shut, and traffic congestion to rapidly decline; oil demand is expected to have dropped to 100 kbd on this shutdown alone. For an industry that has historically witnessed demand deviations within very narrow ranges, it would require an entirely new DNA to tackle a future with significantly amplified spikes and troughs.

Just to be sure, “digital” and AI become crucial when one is faced with multiple business variables, moving dynamically and with a high degree of uncertainty. There are a few major fundamental changes that are expected to create such an environment in the fuel world, going forward.