據今日油價網站7月20日消息 據《海灣時報》援引普華永道在一份報告中稱，當前的能源市場危機可能使卡塔爾受益，并推動第二輪天然氣繁榮。

三年前，全球最大的液化天然氣出口國取消了對其與鄰國共享的北部海上油田的暫停開采令市場大吃一驚。2019年，卡塔爾隨后表示，到2027年，將把液化天然氣產量從目前的7700萬噸提高到1.26億噸。這一決定的動機似乎既有液化天然氣需求的增長，也有競爭日益激烈，尤其是來自澳大利亞和美國項目的競爭。

今年2月，在全球供應過剩導致液化天然氣價格暴跌的情況下，該國決定推遲北方油田的擴建，但到2027年的計劃仍然有效。現在，卡塔爾將從這種過剩中獲益。

普華永道在報告中表示：“多年來最重要的經濟發展是卡塔爾石油公司在11月出人意料地宣布，新的評估擴大了對北部油田地理范圍和產量的估計。經過這些新的評估，北氣田作為世界上最大的氣田也被發現向陸地延伸，其儲量估計翻了一番，達到1760萬億立方英尺天然氣和700億桶凝析油。

與此同時，由于價格低迷，許多私營企業，尤其是美國的私營企業，被迫推遲更多液化天然氣產能的建設。除非天然氣價格很快提高，一些預計的設施可能永遠見不到曙光。在這種背景下，隨著競爭的萎縮，卡塔爾將贏得更多的市場份額，因為它仍然是最廉價的液化天然氣生產國。

普華永道分析師在報告中稱：“即使按照目前的產量水平，國際貨幣基金組織和評級機構的分析結果顯示，卡塔爾的保本油價為該地區最低。財政部長表示，即使在新的液化天然氣產能投產之前，盈虧平衡價格也應在2022年后進一步降至40美元以下。”

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Crisis Fuels Qatar’s New Gas Boom

The current energy market crisis could benefit Qatar and fuel a second gas boom, PwC said in a report, as cited by the Gulf Times.

The world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas three years ago surprised markets by lifting a drilling moratorium from the offshore North Field, which it shares with its neighbor. In 2019, Qatar then said it would boost LNG production from 77 million tons currently to 126 million tons by 2027. The decision seemed to be motivated both by growing demand for LNG and also growing competition, notably from Australian and U.S. projects.

In February this year, the country decided to delay the North Field expansion amid the slump in LNG prices driven by a global oversupply, but the plan through 2027 remained. Now, Qatar is set to benefit from this glut.

“The most important economic development in many years was the surprise announcement by Qatar Petroleum in November that new appraisals had extended estimates of both the geographic scope and volume of North Field,” PwC said in its report. As a result of these new appraisals, the North Field—the largest gas field in the world—has been found to extend onshore as well, with reserve estimates doubled to 1,760 trillion cu ft of gas and 70 billion barrels of condensates.

Meanwhile, many private companies, especially in the United States, are being forced to delay the construction of more LNG capacity because of the price depression. Some projected facilities may never see the light of day unless gas prices improve soon. Against this background, Qatar will win more market share as the competition shrinks, as it remains the cheapest LNG producer.

“Even at current production levels, analysis from the IMF and ratings agencies give Qatar the lowest breakeven oil price in the region and the Minister of Finance has said the breakeven price should fall further to under $40 after 2022, even before the new LNG capacity comes online,” PwC analysts said in the report.