據路透社(Reuters)報道，俄羅斯能源部長亞歷山大?諾瓦克(Alexander Novak) 7月16日表示，全球石油需求將在下月大幅復蘇，與疫情流行前的全球需求水平相比，將上升至10%以內。

諾瓦克說，與病毒爆發前的需求水平相比，4月份的需求下降了25%，導致了世界范圍內的大規模封鎖，包括世界上最大的兩個石油消費國中國和美國。

昨日，歐佩克同意在8月1日放松過去幾個月的減產計劃，預計需求將相應改善。歐佩克將從5月、6月和7月970萬桶/天的產量削減中減少200萬桶/天的削減量。

然而，歐佩克警告說有可能進行另一波爆發的浪潮，特別是在美國將繼續削弱需求。

作為歐佩克+組織的一部分，俄羅斯發布了一份關于石油產量增長的警告，稱歐佩克+成員國8月份增加的石油產量將用于每個國家的國內消費，而不是出口。諾瓦克堅稱，俄羅斯將有能力在8月份消耗任何額外的產量。

俄羅斯烏拉爾山脈現在的價格是1澳元。不過與到期日的布倫特原油相比存在50倍的溢價，因此俄羅斯可能會試圖出口這一級別的原油，以利用這一有利價差。

根據美國能源信息署和美國石油協會提供的數據，對于全球最明顯的以數據為主導的石油市場美國來說，這是至關重要的。沙特阿拉伯6月出口下降，這使得美國本周的庫存有所減少。

歐佩克從8月份開始增加產量，預計將持續到12月份。

趙斌 編譯自 Neftegaz.RU

原文如下：

A.Novak: Get ready for a significant uptick in crude oil demand

Global oil demand will recover significantly next month, climbing to be within 10% of the level that the world saw prior to the coronavirus pandemic, Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on July 16, according to Reuters.

That demand, according to Novak, was off by 25% in April, compared to demand levels before the virus hit, causing major lockdowns the world over - including the world’s top 2 oil consumers, China and the U.S. OPEC seems to agree.

Yesterday, OPEC agreed to relax on August 1 its production cuts that it had set for the last couple of months, with the anticipation that demand would improve accordingly. OPEC will reinstate 2 million barrels per day of oil production from its 9.7 million bpd that it had cut in May, June, and July.

OPEC cautioned, however, that another possible wave of the coronavirus - particularly in the United States - would continue to sap demand.

Russia, as part of the OPEC+ group, issued a caveat for the increase in oil production, stating that the additional oil produced by OPEC+ member countries in August would be consumed domestically by each country, and not exported. Novak insists that Russia will be able to consume any additional production for August.

Russian Urals is now trading at a $.50 premium to dated Brent, however, and so Russia could be tempted to export that grade in order to capitalize on the favorable differential.

For the world’s most visible data-dominated oil market, the United States, this is critical, with Saudi Arabia’s exports dropping off in June, which allowed US inventories to draw down this week, according to data provided by the EIA and API.

The increased OPEC+ production starting in August is expected to run through December.