據(jù)7月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，油價(jià)在周末回升，如果說(shuō)周五的油價(jià)和疫情有一絲樂(lè)觀的話，那就是remdesivir(瑞德西韋)藥物的消息。然而，盡管有好消息，但在美國(guó)病毒病例日益激增的情況下，仍面臨巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

亞洲早盤(pán)油價(jià)下跌，交易商將注意力轉(zhuǎn)向本周舉行的歐佩克最高產(chǎn)油國(guó)會(huì)議，會(huì)議可能會(huì)啟動(dòng)目前的協(xié)議計(jì)劃，即開(kāi)始縮減已有效穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)的大規(guī)模減產(chǎn)。然而，在不引發(fā)“減產(chǎn)規(guī)模縮減恐慌”的情況下做到這一點(diǎn)仍然是一個(gè)挑戰(zhàn)。

鑒于全球病毒病例的上升，這表明石油市場(chǎng)仍處于危機(jī)狀態(tài)，歐佩克是否會(huì)像專家所要求的那樣，延長(zhǎng)減產(chǎn)，為市場(chǎng)再提供一個(gè)多月的回旋余地或者會(huì)將目前減產(chǎn)目標(biāo)下調(diào)，這兩種情況都可能對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生有利的影響。后一種選擇將使歐佩克能夠以更量化的實(shí)時(shí)指標(biāo)逐步擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)量，而不是依賴于回溯的指標(biāo)。

7月對(duì)石油來(lái)說(shuō)可能是個(gè)不穩(wěn)定的月份。最近美國(guó)及其它地區(qū)感染人數(shù)激增，使需求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)再度成為關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)。在減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃按初始階段規(guī)模延長(zhǎng)了一個(gè)月后，歐佩克計(jì)劃在下月放松減產(chǎn)，加上美國(guó)產(chǎn)量可能出現(xiàn)反彈，將在供應(yīng)方面帶來(lái)壓力。

即使是中期的石油牛市狂熱者也必須讓位于市場(chǎng)的短期交易敏感性和傾向。隨著交易量減少，交易區(qū)間繼續(xù)縮小。夏季市場(chǎng)也反映出，目前似乎沒(méi)有人對(duì)事情抱有多大信心——這是惡性循環(huán)。不確定性越高，活躍度就越低，因?yàn)槿员焕г谖ㄒ坏慕灰字小０l(fā)生的事件往往被放大或夸大，最典型的例子就是周五股市的大幅下跌，盡管最近市場(chǎng)和疫情的影響已經(jīng)脫鉤，但在交易清淡的市場(chǎng)上，雪球效應(yīng)很快就會(huì)開(kāi)始發(fā)揮作用。

盡管有證據(jù)表明，油價(jià)已過(guò)了低谷期，供需正在重新平衡，但由于短期基本面可能不明朗，阻力依然存在。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

原文如下：

July May Be A Shaky Month For Oil As Demand Risk Returns To Focus

Oil prices recovered into the weekend, and if there was a glimmer of optimism for oil and the virus on Friday, it was the remdesivir news. However, despite the good news, it remains incredibly torturous digging out from under those US virus case counts that are rising by the day.

Oil prices slipped lower in early Asia as traders turned their focus to the OPEC meeting of top producer this week, The meeting could put in motion the current agreement plans to begin scaling back the massive output cuts that have effectively stabilized markets. However, the challenge remains doing so without causing a "taper tantrum."

Due to the uptick in virus cases globally, which suggests oil markets remain a sick patient, will OPEC+ deliver just what the doctor ordered and provide one more month of wiggle room by extending the historical output cut? Or will we see the introduction of a backwardation target? Either of which could be interpreted quite favorable for oil prices. The latter option would allow OPEC to scale in production gradually on a more quantified real-time measure rather than relying on rolling backdated metrics.

July could be a shaky month for oil. The recent surge in coronavirus infection numbers in the US and elsewhere have brought demand risk back into focus. The planned easing of OPEC+ production cuts next month after a one-month extension of the initial phase of the production cut plan and a potential rebound in US production could add pressure on the supply side of the equation. And factor in Libya lifting the force majeure, it adds another unwanted level of supply-side uncertainty at an extremely critical point in the oil price recovery phase.

Even medium-term oil bull zealots must give way to the markets short term trading sensibilities and proclivities. Trading ranges continue to narrow as exchange volumes dwindle. Summer markets yes but also reflect that no one has seemed to have much conviction on anything right now - the perfect definition of a vicious circle. The more uncertainty grows, the less activity picks up as we remain stuck in the only trade if you have to the environment. Moves that do occur tend to get magnified or blown out of proportion. The perfect example was the significant move down on Friday despite the fact there had been something of a de-coupling of the market and pandemic effects of late. It does not take much for the snowball effect to start in motion in thinly traded markets.

While the evidence suggests we are past the trough for oil and that supply and demand are rebalancing, near-term headwinds remain as the short-term fundamentals are about as muddy as possible.