據7月7日Hydrocarbon Engineering報道，在過去7個多月的時間里，世界從擔心200美元/桶原油的毀滅性前景，到經歷同樣災難性的現實：大宗商品暴跌至負40美元。

去年9月，無人機炸毀了沙特阿拉伯的大型石油設施。變化無常的石油市場迅速遭到拋售。但就在全世界都以為已經逃脫了災難的時候，疫情爆發了。今年第一季度，疫情已經導致全球貿易和大多數國家經濟停滯。

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)稱，今年世界經濟將萎縮3%，并將遭受自1929年大蕭條以來最嚴重的危機，損失高達9萬億美元。

值得注意的是，亞洲開發銀行(ADB)預計，未來兩年，東南亞能源過剩和能源匱乏的經濟體將繼續增長。其在4月初和國際貨幣基金組織報告同時發布了相對樂觀的預測，預計疫情的影響將在第二季度達到峰值，并在2020年下半年逐步恢復正常。

隨著布倫特原油價格從2019年的平均66美元/桶跌至4月底的不到20美元/桶，文萊、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞和越南等地區的能源生產國今年的油氣出口收入可能會減少至多70%。4月20日，美國基準原油西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)跌至- 40美元/桶的歷史新低。

對于能源凈進口國柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸、新加坡、菲律賓和泰國來說，廉價石油和天然氣帶來的好處將被出口大幅放緩和經濟增長放緩的沖擊所抵消。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Hydrocarbon Engineering

原文如下：

Southeast Asia: riding the oil price storm

In just over seven months, the world went from fearing the devastating prospects of crude oil at US$200/bbl to experiencing the equally devastating reality of the commodity’s collapse to minus US$40.

The world economy was to have gone up in flames last September when drones blew up giant oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

That did not materialise – for now at least – and the fickle oil markets quickly sold off.

The world economy will shrink by 3% this year and lose up to US$9 trillion for its worst meltdown since the Great Depression of 1929, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

ADB vs the IMF

Remarkably, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects Southeast Asia’s mix of energy-surplus and energy-deficient economies to continue to grow over the next two years. Its relatively upbeat forecast, published in early April at the same time as the IMF’s report, largely assumes COVID-19’s impact will peak in the second quarter, with a gradual return to normality in the second half of 2020.

With the Brent crude price plunging from an average US$66/bbl in 2019 to under US$20/bbl in late April, the region’s energy producers Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam could have their oil and gas export earnings slashed by as much as 70% this year. The US benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fell to a new record low of minus US$40/bbl on 20 April.

For net energy importers Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore, Philippines and Thailand, the benefit of cheaper oil and gas will be offset by the shock of sharply weaker exports and lower economic growth.