據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，俄羅斯能源部長亞歷山大?諾瓦克(Alexander Novak)周四在一個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)會(huì)議上表示，受當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求的影響，今年全球石油投資將減少三分之一。

諾瓦克指出，在4月形勢最嚴(yán)重時(shí)，全球需求銳減25%-28%，即每日減少2800萬桶，并指出歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議有助于市場再平衡。這位俄羅斯部長稱，這種平衡，甚至虧損，可能會(huì)在本月達(dá)到。

諾瓦克對(duì)市場再平衡和石油行業(yè)投資的看法與分析人士和國際組織的評(píng)估一致。

國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)在今年5月發(fā)布的《2020年世界能源投資報(bào)告》中表示，當(dāng)前形勢將導(dǎo)致能源投資出現(xiàn)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的年度降幅——近4000億美元。該機(jī)構(gòu)估計(jì)，今年石油和天然氣行業(yè)的投資降幅將最大。2020年油氣投資將比2019年減少2441億美元，減少近三分之一。

國際能源署在其報(bào)告中表示:“頁巖氣行業(yè)已經(jīng)面臨壓力，投資者的信心和獲取資本的渠道已經(jīng)枯竭:預(yù)計(jì)2020年對(duì)頁巖氣的投資將下降50%。石油行業(yè)投資的大幅削減可能導(dǎo)致石油市場比此前預(yù)期的更為緊張。”

Rystad Energy預(yù)計(jì)，2020年全球在上游石油項(xiàng)目上的投資將同比下降29%，降至3830億美元，其中頁巖油的投資將受到最大沖擊，下降52.2%，至673億美元。

Rystad Energy的上游分析師Olga Savenkova上個(gè)月表示：“由于這一影響將比上一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期更為嚴(yán)重，企業(yè)正極力捍衛(wèi)股東價(jià)值，并在近期轉(zhuǎn)向更為保守的支出策略。隨著全球上游行業(yè)面臨低價(jià)、需求下降和匯率波動(dòng)的挑戰(zhàn)，每一次美元降價(jià)都將使市場受到沉重打擊。”。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER: GLOBAL OIL INVESTMENT TO DROP BY ONE-THIRD

Global investment in oil is set to plunge by one-third this year due to the coronavirus and its effect on economies and oil demand, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said at an online conference on Thursday.

At the peak of the pandemic in April, global demand crashed by 25-28 percent, or by 28 million barrels per day (bpd), Novak said, noting that the new OPEC+ production cut agreement is helping the market rebalance. That balance, and even a deficit, could be reached this month, the Russian minister said.

Novak’s views on the market rebalancing and investments in the oil industry echo assessments of analysts and international organizations.

The COVID-19 pandemic will result in the biggest annual drop in energy investments on record—nearly US$400 billion, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Investment 2020 report in May.

The oil and gas sector will see the steepest decline in investment this year compared to last year, the IEA has estimated. Investment in oil and gas is set to plunge by US$244.1 billion, or by nearly one-third, in 2020 compared to 2019.

“The shale industry was already under pressure, and investor confidence and access to capital has now dried up: investment in shale is anticipated to fall by 50% in 2020,” the IEA said in its report.

The slashed investments in the oil industry could lead to a tighter oil market than previously anticipated, according to the IEA.

Rystad Energy expects global spending on upstream oil projects to plunge by 29 percent year on year to US$383 billion in 2020, with investments in shale taking the biggest hit and plummeting by 52.2 percent to US$67.3 billion.

“As the impact will be more severe than in the previous downturn, companies are fiercely defending shareholder value and pivoting towards more conservative spending strategies in the near-term. As the global upstream sector contends with low prices, falling demand, and fluctuating exchange rates, every dollar cut will strike directly to the bone,” Rystad Energy’s upstream analyst Olga Savenkova said last month.