據能源新聞7月3日消息稱，Wood Mackenzie指出，上游勘探對于滿足未來的全球能源需求至關重要。在2040年之前，全球能源需求的很大一部分將依賴于石油和天然氣。

這家咨詢公司在周三的一份新報告中表示，在正在進行的能源轉型中，對勘探的需求正在減少。據Kallanish Energy報道，盡管目前勘探常常被視為隨意的，甚至是毫無根據的，但缺乏勘探可能會導致巨大的供應缺口。

報告說：“即使在2攝氏度的情況下，未來20年全球對石油和天然氣的累計需求也將至少達到1.1萬億桶石油當量。根據我們的基本情況預測，它可能多達1.4萬億桶石油當量?，F有油田已開發的原油可滿足約6400萬桶的需求。這就造成了4600億到760億桶原油的供應缺口。”

分析顯示，現有的發現可以填補整個供應缺口，甚至更多。但是，投資是需要的，只有成本最低、經濟效益最好的資源才能吸引資本。

WoodMac預測，為了確保未來有足夠的石油和天然氣可用，無論能源轉型的步伐如何，碳氫化合物工業“至少需要在2030年之前保持過去五年的成功率”。

曹海斌 摘譯自 能源新聞

原文如下：

Exploration remains crucial during energy transition

Upstream exploration will be critical in meeting the future global energy demand, much of which is set to rely on oil and gas until well beyond 2040, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The consulting firm said in a new report on Wednesday that the need for exploration in the ongoing energy transition is diminishing. While exploration is now often seen as discretionary or even unwarranted, lack of it could lead to a huge supply gap, Kallanish Energy reports.

“Cumulative global demand for oil and gas over the next two decades will be at least 1,100 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) even in a 2°C scenario. It could be as much as 1,400 Bboe on our base case forecasts. Around 640 Bboe can be met by proven developed supply from onstream fields. This leaves a supply gap of between 460 billion to 760 Bboe,” the report said.

Existing discoveries could meet this entire supply gap, and even more, the analysis suggested. However, investment is needed and only resources with the lowest cost and best economics will attract capital.

To ensure there will be enough oil and gas available in the future, whatever the pace of the energy transition, the hydrocarbon industry “needs to maintain its success rate of the past five years until at least 2030,” WoodMac predicted.