據(jù)6月20日Offshore Energy報(bào)道，Rystad周四表示，今年油田服務(wù)領(lǐng)域（OFS）的支出預(yù)計(jì)為4810億美元，并將在2021年邁出復(fù)蘇的第一步，預(yù)計(jì)復(fù)蘇速度僅為2%左右。

到2022年和2023年，油氣勘探與開(kāi)發(fā)公司在OFS上的支出將分別達(dá)到5520億美元和6200億美元，油氣資源的恢復(fù)將進(jìn)一步加快。Rystad表示，盡管有所提振，但規(guī)模不會(huì)回到2019年疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，即6390億美元。

然而，從2021年開(kāi)始，OFS業(yè)務(wù)的復(fù)蘇并不會(huì)在所有細(xì)分市場(chǎng)都可以見(jiàn)到。據(jù)該公司稱，油井服務(wù)和壓力泵市場(chǎng)將首先出現(xiàn)提振，而其他市場(chǎng)會(huì)在進(jìn)一步低迷后才能復(fù)蘇。

Rystad Energy能源研究主管Audun Martinsen表示:“盡管油價(jià)在復(fù)蘇，但供應(yīng)鏈的各個(gè)部門(mén)的收入要實(shí)現(xiàn)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)還需要很多時(shí)間。在經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)的情況下，運(yùn)營(yíng)商更傾向于靈活的預(yù)算項(xiàng)目，如增加產(chǎn)量、投資高回報(bào)率高、回報(bào)時(shí)間短等。因此，預(yù)計(jì)優(yōu)質(zhì)服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)將率先復(fù)蘇，而長(zhǎng)周期業(yè)務(wù)的復(fù)蘇則要晚得多。”

如果將OFS劃分為6個(gè)部分——維護(hù)和運(yùn)營(yíng)、油井服務(wù)和商品、鉆井承包商、水下生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)、EPCI和地震勘測(cè)——2021年只有前3個(gè)領(lǐng)域能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。Rystad稱，后三個(gè)領(lǐng)域必須準(zhǔn)備好迎接又一年的收入下降，才能期待業(yè)績(jī)改善。

從絕對(duì)數(shù)字上看，維護(hù)和運(yùn)營(yíng)部門(mén)在2019年的2020億美元下降到今年的1670億美元之后，未來(lái)三年有望實(shí)現(xiàn)連續(xù)的年度增長(zhǎng)。這部分支出預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年恢復(fù)到1750億美元，2022年恢復(fù)到1930億美元，2023年恢復(fù)到2050億美元。

油井服務(wù)和大宗商品板塊也將出現(xiàn)類似的復(fù)蘇，但在此之前，其規(guī)模已從去年的2310億美元降至2020年的1520億美元。這是各細(xì)分市場(chǎng)絕對(duì)數(shù)字降幅最大的一次。在這方面的支出預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年增加到1630億美元，2022年增加到1890億美元，2023年增加到2100億美元。

同樣的模式也適用于鉆井承包商，從去年的620億美元降至2020年的460億美元。據(jù)Rystad稱，2021年，這一數(shù)字將增長(zhǎng)到470億美元，2022年增長(zhǎng)到540億美元，2023年增長(zhǎng)到570億美元。

另一方面，水下生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)將在2022年開(kāi)始反彈。也就是說(shuō)，2020年從2019年的250億美元降至240億美元，還將在2021年進(jìn)一步降至220億美元。第一次反彈將在2022年達(dá)到240億美元，然后在2023年達(dá)到290億美元。

同樣，EPCI也將從去年的1050億美元降至2020年的810億美元。到2021年，這一數(shù)字將進(jìn)一步下滑至740億美元。經(jīng)過(guò)兩年的不景氣，到2022年，這個(gè)數(shù)字將回升到810億美元，到2023年將增長(zhǎng)到1060億美元。

最后，地震預(yù)測(cè)公司將從2019年的150億美元降至2020年的120億美元。2021年，這一數(shù)字將繼續(xù)下降至100億美元，到2022年將反彈至110億美元。一年后，將進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)到130億美元。

Martinsen補(bǔ)充道“充其量，只有某些地區(qū)和服務(wù)部門(mén)的收入會(huì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。整個(gè)供應(yīng)鏈要想恢復(fù)，我們可能需要等到2023年以后，我們預(yù)計(jì)到那時(shí)服務(wù)需求將回到2019年的水平。”

Rystad還表示，供應(yīng)商將面臨持續(xù)的挑戰(zhàn)。然而，盡管石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)需要數(shù)年時(shí)間才能恢復(fù)，但即將到來(lái)的能源轉(zhuǎn)型可能是一個(gè)潛在的希望之路，因?yàn)樗赡転镺FS參與者打開(kāi)新的市場(chǎng)，并發(fā)揮他們的能力實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。

值得提醒的是，Rystad早些時(shí)候曾表示，疫情將推動(dòng)石油需求峰值加速到來(lái)，全球可采石油將減少約2820億桶。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Offshore Energy

原文如下：

Rystad: Oilfield services demand to drop by 25 per cent due to Covid-19 downturn

Rystad said on Thursday that OFS spending was expected at $481 billion this year and take the first step towards recovery in 2021 when it is forecast to tick up by just about 2 per cent.

The recovery will accelerate further in 2022 and 2023, with OFS spending by E&Ps reaching some $552 and $620 billion, respectively. Despite the boost, Rystad stated that purchases would not return to the pre-Covid-19 levels of $639 billion achieved in 2019.

However, the comeback will not be visible across all OFS segments from 2021. According to the company, well services and the pressure pumping market will be the first to see a boost, while other markets will need to get further depressed before recovering.

Rystad Energy’s head of energy research Audun Martinsen said: “Despite the recovery in oil prices, it will take many quarters before all segments of the supply chain see their revenues deliver consistent growth.

“In case of an upturn, operators would prefer flexible budget items with production increments and high-return investments with short pay-back times. Therefore, we expect well service segments to be the first to recover, while long-lead segments will pick up much later“.

If we divide OFS into six segments – maintenance and operations, well services and commodities, drilling contractors, subsea, EPCI, and seismic – only the first three will manage to rise in 2021.

Rystad claims that the latter three will have to brace for another year of falling revenues before they can expect improvements.

In absolute numbers, the maintenance and operations segment is poised for consecutive yearly rises in the next three years after slumping to $167 billion this year from $202 billion in 2019.

Spending in this segment is expected to recover to $175 billion in 2021, $193 billion in 2022, and $205 billion in 2023.

The well services and commodities segment is set for a similar recovery, but only after slumping to $152 billion in 2020 from $231 billion last year. This is the biggest decline among segments in absolute numbers. Spending in this segment is expected to rise to $163 billion in 2021, $189 billion in 2022, and $210 billion in 2023.

The same pattern applies to drilling contractors, with the segment fell to $46 billion in 2020 from $62 billion last year. According to Rystad, it will rise to $47 billion in 2021, $54 billion in 2022, and $57 billion in 2023.

The subsea segment, on the other hand, will begin its rebound in 2022. Namely, it fell from $25 billion in 2019 to $24 billion in 2020 and will decline further to $22 billion in 2021. The first rebound will be to $24 billion in 2022 and then to $29 billion in 2023.

Similarly, EPCI is set to fall to $81 billion in 2020 from $105 billion last year. It will slide further to $74 billion in 2021. After two bad years, it will rise back to $81 billion in 2022 and grow to $106 billion in 2023.

Lastly, seismic is poised to decline to $12 billion in 2020 from $15 billion in 2019. It will keep dropping to $10 billion in 2021, before rebounding to $11 billion in 2022. It will further grom to $13 billion a year later.

“At best there will only be certain regions and service segments that will see their revenues grow consistently. For the whole supply chain to recover, we will likely need to wait until after 2023, when we expect service purchases to return to their 2019 levels“, adds Martinsen.

Rystad added that suppliers will face a continued challenge turning their bottom lines back into the black and deal with their debt.

However, while the oil and gas market is expected to take years to recover, the impending energy transition could be a potential avenue of hope as it could open up new markets for OFS players to leverage their capabilities and grow.

It is worth reminding that Rystad said earlier this week that the Covid-19 downturn will expedite peak oil demand and reduce the world’s recoverable oil by around 282 billion barrels.