據今日油價6月6日報道，歐佩克及其合作伙伴于6月6日下午結束了會議，宣布將延長目前的減產協議。

歐佩克現任主席、阿爾及利亞能源部長穆罕默德?阿爾卡布(Mohamed Arkab)總結了歐佩克的觀點，稱:“盡管迄今取得了進展，但我們不能坐以待斃。”

最近幾天，沙特與其他歐佩克成員國以及俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦和阿塞拜疆等非歐佩克國家進行了談判，決定將目前每天970萬桶的減產規模至少再延長一個月。

參與創紀錄減產的大多數國家都愿意繼續當前的協議，但尼日利亞、哈薩克斯坦等國的履約不力引起了歐佩克其他成員國的不滿，不過，其中一些國家甚至比4月份商定的減產幅度更大。

在上周六的線上會議上，歐佩克同意，那些在5月和6月未能完全達標的國家，將必須在7月、8月和9月作出補償性減產。

隨著全球需求開始復蘇，創紀錄的減產和全球范圍內的油井關閉，緩解了巨大的供應過剩危機，5月份油價實際上翻了一番。

雖然歐佩克+協議的延長無疑會對市場產生利好影響，但油價周一不太可能大幅上漲，因為歐佩克+的消息已經在很大程度上反映在價格中了。

油價要想全面復蘇，就必須恢復全球需求，減少原油庫存，這兩項工作可能都需要長達兩年的時間。Pioneer的斯科特謝菲爾德（Scott Sheffield）表示，隨著許多經濟體“重新開放”，需求迅速反彈至每天9400萬至9500萬桶。值得注意的是，需求反彈將停滯，他表示，需求在2022年甚至2023年之前都不會達到之前的水平。

就目前而言，沙特阿美可能是推動油價上漲的下一個催化劑，該公司有望在周一發布官方銷售價格（OSPs），從而為6月份的油價上漲做好鋪墊。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

OPEC+ Agrees On Extending Record Output Cuts

OPEC and its partners concluded their meeting on Saturday afternoon, announcing that it would extend its current production cut deal.

Algeria’s Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab, OPEC’s current President summed up the group’s sentiment by saying that "Despite the progress achieved to date, we cannot afford to rest on our laurels,''.

The last couple of days, the cartel’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia negotiated with other OPEC members and some non-OPEC countries including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to extend the current 9.7 million bpd output cuts for at least another month.

Most countries partaking in the record production cuts were willing to continue the current deal, but poor compliance from countries like Nigeria and Kazakhstan has caused discontent among other OPEC members, some of which have even made deeper cuts than agreed on in April.

During the virtual meeting on Saturday, the cartel agreed that the countries that were unable to reach full conformity in May and June will have to compensate for this in July, August and September.

Oil prices effectively doubled during the month of May as global demand started to recover and record output cuts and worldwide well shut-ins decreased the monster glut.

While the OPEC+ deal extension undoubtedly will have a bullish effect on markets, prices aren’t likely to rip much higher on Monday as the OPEC+ news has largely been priced in already.

For oil prices to make a full recovery, global demand will have to recover and crude inventories have to be drawn down, both of which will likely take up to two years. Pioneer’s Scott Sheffield said that the quick rebound of demand to around 94-95 mb/d following the “reopening” of so many economies will give way to stagnation, saying that demand won’t reach pre-pandemic levels until 2022 or even 2023.

For now, the next bullish catalyst for oil could come from Saudi Aramco, which could set the trend for higher oil prices in June as it is expected to release its OSPs (official selling prices) on Monday.