據油價網2020年5月19日休斯頓報道，疫情席卷了整個航空業，顛覆了對未來幾年的機隊、航線和乘客人數的預測。在這個旅行受限、封國鎖城、社交疏遠和只在網上舉行商務會議的不尋常時期，商業航空旅行和旅游業是受打擊最嚴重的行業。

航空公司和飛機制造商將面臨數年的虧損和成本削減，直到航空旅行數量恢復到危機前的水平。在航空業明顯低迷的這幾年里，航空煤油的需求預計將是需求恢復到2019年水平的最后一種石油產品。

分析人士說，雖然道路交通的石油需求已經顯示出復蘇的跡象，因為人們更喜歡開車上下班，而不是乘坐公共交通工具，但對航空煤油的需求可能需要更長的時間，可能需要數年時間才能恢復。

航空業已發生重大變化

《福布斯》資深撰稿人泰德·里德說，疫情已經給商業運作方式帶來了重大變化。

自從各國采取措施限制入境旅行以平抑感染曲線以來，航空公司的客流量急劇下降。例如，根據美國運輸安全管理局(TSA)的統計數據，在剛剛過去的這個周日，美國機場安檢處的總旅客吞吐量僅為25.3807萬人，而去年同一天通過安檢的旅客吞吐量為262.0276萬人。換句話說，美國5月中旬的乘機人數還不到去年美國機場正常日客流量的10%。

當然，航空公司感到了壓力，而飛機制造商同樣也感到了壓力。盡管美國航空公司有義務至少在9月底前不裁員，以此作為獲得美國補貼的條件，但他們警告稱，裁員將在9月底之后發生。

例如，達美航空公司首席執行官艾德?巴斯蒂安在4月份舉行的公司第一季度財報電話會議上表示，該公司有3.7萬名員工(占員工總數的三分之一以上)選擇了自愿無薪休假，休假時間從30天到一年不等。

巴斯蒂安補充道，達美航空公司3月每日現金消耗為1億美元，預計5月每日現金消耗為5000萬美元。

在美國以外的地區，航空公司已經開始裁員。英國航空公司的所有者IAG在5月初曾警告稱，該公司可能會裁員多達1.2萬名員工。歐洲最大的廉價航空公司瑞安航空公司正在協商裁員3000人，主要是飛行員和空乘人員。瑞安航空公司預計，今年的載客量將達到最初預期的一半。據彭博新聞社報道，阿聯酋航空公司正在考慮裁員3萬人。

各種規模的航空公司現在都必須弄清楚，除了今年黯淡的前景外，如何在航班上保持社交距離和遮蓋面部。

飛機制造商也深受其害

乘客人數大幅減少，復蘇時間表高度不確定，影響了航空公司的機隊輪換、退休和新機購買，影響了波音、空客和通用航空等飛機制造商和供應商，這些公司也在裁員。

波音公司已經采取行動，通過自愿裁員(VLO)、自然離職和必要的非自愿裁員相結合，將員工數量減少大約10- 15%。這意味著波音將裁員1.5 - 1.6萬人，“因疫情也對我們的業務造成了沉重打擊，”波音公司總裁兼首席執行官戴夫·卡爾霍恩在4月底致員工的信中如是說。

復蘇需要數年時間，威脅航煤需求

管理人士和分析師表示，與公路運輸業不同，航空運輸業將在未來數年受到疫情的沖擊。因此，航空煤油需求——受經濟衰退打擊最嚴重的燃料——將以最慢的速度恢復。

達美航空公司的巴斯蒂安在公司財報電話會議上表示，“鑒于疫情大流行的綜合影響以及相關金融因素對全球經濟的影響，我們認為可能需要長達3年的時間才能看到全球航煤需求的持續復蘇。”

高盛公司表示，盡管全球石油需求將隨著v型復蘇而反彈，但航空煤油需求將繼續低迷至少兩年，原因是商務旅行大幅減少。

EIA的統計數據顯示，在5月8日結束的那周里，美國的汽油平均日需求量為739.8萬桶，仍遠遠低于去年同期的914.8萬桶，但比兩周前的586萬桶/天有了明顯改善,。

另一方面，雷斯塔能源公司的統計數據顯示，今年全球航空煤油需求將減少33.6%，或至少減少240萬桶/天，而去年的需求為720萬桶/天。明年，航空煤油需求將無法回到危機前的水平，預計平均為每天690萬桶。

據伍德麥肯茲稱，航空煤油需求最早也要到2022年才能恢復到2019年的水平。

旅行限制和禁飛會影響對航空業未來的短期預測，但生活方式和旅行行為的持續改變可能會永遠顛覆航空旅行業務及其對航空煤油的需求。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Jet Fuel Demand Will Take Years To Recover

The coronavirus pandemic swept across the airline industry, upending fleet, route, and passenger number predictions for years to come. Commercial air travel, alongside tourism, is the worst-hit business in these unusual times of restricted travel, lockdowns, social distancing, and online-only business conferences.

Airlines and aircraft manufacturers face a few years of losses and cost cuts before air travel numbers return to pre-crisis levels. In these several years of a marked downturn for the industry, demand for jet fuel is expected to be the last oil product to see demand recover to levels from 2019.

While oil demand for road transportation already shows signs of recovery as people prefer commuting with their own cars rather than using public transport, demand for jet fuel will probably take much longer—possibly years—to recover, analysts say.

The Airline Business Has Already Changed

The COVID-19 pandemic has already brought significant changes to the way the business operates, according to Forbes Senior Contributor Ted Reed.

Passenger traffic on airlines has dropped off a cliff since countries moved to restrict inbound travel in an effort to flatten the curve of infections. In the United States, for example, total traveler throughput at security was just 253,807 this past Sunday, compared to 2,620,276 passengers who cleared security at airports on the same day last year, according to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). In other words, the passenger numbers in mid-May were less than 10 percent of the typical day at U.S. airports last year.

The airlines, of course, are feeling the pinch, and so are aircraft manufacturers. While U.S. airlines have an obligation not to lay off staff at least until end-September as a condition to receive U.S. grants, they are warning that layoffs will be coming after that.

“October 1st is likely to emerge as one of the darkest days in history for airline labor,” JPMorgan Chase said earlier this month, as carried by Reuters.

At Delta Air Lines, for example, 37,000 employees, more than one-third of the workforce, have elected to take voluntary unpaid leaves ranging from 30 days to one year, CEO Ed Bastian said on the earnings call in April.

Delta was burning cash at a rate of $100 million per day in March, and expected that cash-burn rate at $50 million a day in May, Bastian added.

Outside the United States, airlines are already taking an ax to payroll numbers. IAG, the owner of British Airways, warned in early May that it is likely that there would be redundancies of up to 12,000 British Airways’ employees. Europe’s biggest budget carrier, Ryanair, is negotiating 3,000 job cuts, mainly pilots and cabin crew, and expects to carry this year half the number of passengers compared to initial expectations. Emirates is reportedly weighing 30,000 job cuts, according to Bloomberg News.

Airlines of all sizes now have to figure out how social distancing and face-coverings on flights would work apart from the gloomy outlooks for this year.

Aircraft Manufacturers Also Suffer

Significantly reduced passenger numbers and a highly uncertain recovery timeline impacts airlines’ fleet rotation, retirement, and new buys, affecting manufacturers and suppliers such as Boeing, Airbus, and GE Aviation, which are also cutting jobs.

Boeing has taken action to lower employee numbers by around 10-15 percent through a combination of voluntary layoffs (VLO), natural turnover, and involuntary layoffs as necessary. This means that Boeing will cut 15,000-16,000 jobs, as “the pandemic is also delivering a body blow to our business,” Boeing President and CEO Dave Calhoun said in a letter to employees at the end of April.

Recovery To Take Years, Threatening Jet Fuel Demand

Unlike in road transportation, where recovery is gaining momentum with eased lockdowns and more U.S. states and major economies opening up, airline transportation will suffer for years to come, executives and analysts say. As a consequence, jet fuel demand—the fuel worst hit by the slump—will recover at the slowest rate.

“Given the combined effects of the pandemic and associated financial impact on the global economy, we believe that it could be up to three years before we see a sustainable recovery,” Delta’s Bastian said on the earnings call.

While global oil demand is set to rebound with a V-shaped recovery, demand for jet fuel will continue to languish for at least another two years, cut by significantly reduced business travel, Goldman Sachs says.

Gasoline demand in the U.S. stood at 7.398 million bpd for the week to May 8, and although this was still below the 9.148-million bpd demand for the same week last year, the number was a clear improvement from the 5.86-million-bpd demand just two weeks prior, EIA data shows.

Global jet fuel demand, on the other hand, will drop by 33.6 percent this year, or by at least 2.4 million bpd from last year’s demand of 7.2 million bpd, according to Rystad Energy. Next year, jet fuel demand will not have returned to the pre-crisis levels and is expected to average 6.9 million bpd.

According to Wood Mackenzie, jet fuel demand is not expected to regain the 2019 level until 2022 at the earliest.

Travel restrictions and lockdowns impact near-term projections for the airline industry's future, but a lasting change in lifestyles and travel behavior could upend the air travel business and its demand for fuel forever.