據今日石油網站報道,COVID-19引發的封鎖措施導致了全球石油和天然氣需求急劇下降,國際能源署(IEA)估計,5月份全球石油需求可能下降大約26%。
全球知名的數據統計與分析機構GlobalData表示,由于液體儲存迅速增加導致了生產終端的利用率降低,從而加劇了價格暴跌,這將對收入和利潤率產生重大影響。
以下是GlobalData關于COVID-19對全球石油和天然氣行業影響的最新報告的要點:
資本支出調整
●國際石油公司、國家石油公司和獨立石油公司都在削減資本支出和運營成本以適應低油價。
●截至今年5月10日,已宣布的削減今年資本支出指導的總金額達到了大約1200億美元,涉及170家公司。
●削減資本支出主要體現在美國頁巖遠景區的鉆探、項目最終投資決定(FID)的推遲以及勘探預算的削減上。
●迄今為止,主要的FID推遲包括伍德菲伯液化天然氣項目、魯伍馬液化天然氣項目,以及斯卡伯勒天然氣田和Pluto液化天然氣擴建項目。
供應鏈中斷
●旨在限制COVID-19傳播的限制措施正在阻礙一些進行中的項目的進展,一個主要的例子是毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾的Tortue液化天然氣項目,這個項目被推遲了大約1年。
政府政策應對
●石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)和其他主要產油國一致同意削減970萬桶/天的石油產量,以抵消減少的需求。
●挪威宣布今年6月削減石油產量25萬桶/天,在今年剩余時間里削減石油產量13.4萬桶/天,以穩定市場。
●加拿大和加納是首批計劃實施財政刺激以支持本國陷入困境的石油和天然氣行業走出低迷的國家。
失業
●縮減勘探和生產活動,關閉石油和天然氣廠,這些都導致了服務行業的裁員。
●哈里伯頓公司宣布在德克薩斯州和俄克拉荷馬州裁員。
GlobalData說,對上游公司的短期影響包括減產、項目推遲和鉆井暫停。
在圭亞那,美國石油巨頭埃克森美孚公司表示,該公司目前沒有任何立即關閉其在去年12月開始生產石油的麗莎大油田第一階段開發項目生產的計劃。
??松梨诠径麻L兼首席執行官達倫·伍茲說:“圭亞那仍然是我們長期增長計劃的組成部分,因此是一個高度優先事項。我們在麗莎大油田的第一階段行動基本上沒有受到新冠病毒大流行的影響。我們還控制了大流行對麗莎二期的影響,使該項目如期在2022年啟動?!?/span>
然而,由于應對COVID-19全球封鎖,鉆井隊作業人員輪換的挑戰減緩了斯塔布魯克區塊的鉆井活動。
??松梨诠竟绢A計未來的開發將推遲大約6至12個月,將麗莎大油田的日產75萬桶原油的生產目標推遲到2026年。
李峻 編譯自 今日石油
原文如下:
CAPEX cuts hit US$120 billion across 170 companies – Guyana offshore pushes on
COVID-19 lockdown measures have brought a sharp drop in global oil and gas demand, with the International Energy Agency estimating that global oil demand could fall by approximately 26 percent this month.
GlobalData says the crash in prices – aggravated by a rapid build in liquids storage that caused lower utilization at the production end – will significantly impact revenue and profit margins.
Here are the highlights from GlobalData’s most recent report on the COVID-19 impact on the oil and gas industry:
Capex realignment
· IOCs, NOCs, and independents are cutting capex and opex in tune with low oil prices.
· Announced cuts to capex guidance for 2020 now amount to around US$120 billion as of 10th May 2020, considering 170 companies.
· Capex cuts are primarily being felt in drilling in the US shale plays, in postponement of project FIDs, and reductions to exploration budgets.
· Major FID postponements to date include Woodfibre LNG, Rovuma LNG, and the Scarborough gas field and Pluto LNG expansion.
Supply chain disruption
· Restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19 are hampering progress for some ongoing projects, with a major example being the Tortue LNG project in Mauritania and Senegal, delayed for around 1 year.
Government policy responses
· OPEC and other major producers collectively agreed over 9.7 million bpd of oil production cuts in order to offset reduced demand.
· Norway announced oil production cuts of 250,000 bpd for June 2020 and 134,000 bpd for the rest of the year to stabilize the markets
Canada and Ghana are among the first countries that are planning a fiscal stimulus to support the country’s ailing oil and gas industry from the downturn.
Unemployment
· Shrinking E&P activity and closing oil and gas plants are leading to layoffs in the services industry.
· Halliburton announced job cuts in Texas and Oklahoma.
GlobalData says the short-term impact to upstream companies include production cuts, projects delay and drilling suspension.
In Guyana, US oil major ExxonMobil has said that it has no immediate plans to shut in production at the Liza Phase 1 Development where it began producing oil last December.
“Guyana remains an integral part of our long-term growth plans and as such is a high priority. Our Liza Phase One operations have been largely unaffected by the pandemic. We have also managed the impact on Liza Phase Two, keeping this project on schedule for 2022 start up,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation, Darren Woods has said.
However, challenges of crew rotations due to the global lockdown in response to COVID-19 have slowed down the drill campaigns at the Stabroek Block.
The company expects a delay in its future developments of roughly 6 to 12 months, pushing its production objective of more than 750,000 barrels per day into 2026.
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