據(jù)世界管道5月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)預(yù)計(jì)，2020年和2021年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將下降，因?yàn)槎糁埔咔槁拥呐⒗^續(xù)導(dǎo)致石油產(chǎn)品和原油價(jià)格的急劇下降。EIA在其5月短期能源展望(STEO)中預(yù)測(cè)，2020年美國(guó)原油日均產(chǎn)量為1,170萬(wàn)桶，2021年為1,090萬(wàn)桶。較2019年的1220萬(wàn)桶將分別減少50萬(wàn)桶和130萬(wàn)桶。

基準(zhǔn)的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)的現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)從2020年1月的58美元/桶下降到3月的29美元/桶和4月的17美元/桶。油價(jià)的急劇下跌已經(jīng)對(duì)美國(guó)的鉆探活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生了重大影響。截至今年2月，除GoM外，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的在用鉆機(jī)總數(shù)為753臺(tái)，但3月和4月分別降至738臺(tái)和572臺(tái)，為2016年5月以來(lái)的最低水平。根據(jù)貝克休斯的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2020年5月8日，陸地鉆機(jī)數(shù)量為355臺(tái)，減少48臺(tái)。

EIA對(duì)原油產(chǎn)量的短期預(yù)測(cè)分為三個(gè)區(qū)域:不包括GoM的48個(gè)州(2019年原油產(chǎn)量的81%)、GpM(15%)和阿拉斯加(4%)。美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量的預(yù)期變化，大多出現(xiàn)在除GoM產(chǎn)量以外的48個(gè)州，因?yàn)镚oM和阿拉斯加的項(xiàng)目往往有不同的開發(fā)時(shí)間表，對(duì)短期價(jià)格變化不太敏感。

通常情況下，原油價(jià)格的變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)48個(gè)州的原油產(chǎn)量在大約6個(gè)月后發(fā)生變化。然而，目前的市場(chǎng)狀況可能不會(huì)遵循這種關(guān)系，因?yàn)樵S多生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)宣布大幅削減資本支出和鉆井水平，并計(jì)劃削減產(chǎn)量。最近WTI價(jià)格的大部分變化將繼續(xù)影響今年晚些時(shí)候和2021年全年的生產(chǎn)。EIA預(yù)測(cè)2021年美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量將減少80萬(wàn)桶，這將是有記錄以來(lái)美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量的最大年度降幅。

EIA預(yù)測(cè)，2020年和2021年，GoM產(chǎn)量將保持相對(duì)平穩(wěn)，日均190萬(wàn)桶，與2019年的平均產(chǎn)量幾乎持平。此外，EIA預(yù)計(jì)2020年和2021年不會(huì)取消已宣布的GoM項(xiàng)目。EIA預(yù)測(cè)，2020年阿拉斯加的原油日均產(chǎn)量將保持在46萬(wàn)桶，2021年將略有增加。

EIA的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)非常不確定，因?yàn)橐咔榫徑獯胧┑挠绊懭栽诓粩嘌葑儯⒂纱水a(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。此外，石油輸出國(guó)組織歐佩克成員國(guó)和其它合作伙伴國(guó)家宣布，到2022年將大幅減產(chǎn)。如果減產(chǎn)得以實(shí)現(xiàn)，將影響油價(jià)和美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)的投資決策。

郝芬 譯自 世界管道

原文如下：

EIA forecasts US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021 as efforts to mitigate the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to result in a steep drop in demand for petroleum products and crude oil prices. In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that US crude oil production will average 11.7 million bpd in 2020 and 10.9 million bpd in 2021. These levels would be 0.5 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd, respectively, lower than the 2019 average of 12.2 million bpd.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil average spot price dropped from US$58/bbl in January 2020 to US$29/bbl in March and US$17/bbl in April. This sharp decline in the oil price is already having a significant effect on drilling activity in the US. The number of active drilling rigs in the Lower 48 states, excluding the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM), totalled 753 as of February, but it fell to 738 in March and 572 in April, the lowest since May 2016. As of 8 May 2020, the Lower 48 land rig count stood at 355 rigs, according to Baker Hughes data.

EIA’s short-term forecast for crude oil production is separated into three regions: the Lower 48 states excluding GoM (81% of 2019 crude oil production), the GpM (15%), and Alaska (4%). Most of the expected changes in US crude oil production arise in changes in Lower 48 states excluding GoM production because projects in the GoM and Alaska tend to have different development timelines and are less sensitive to near-term price changes.

Typically, crude oil price changes result in changes in Lower 48 US crude oil production after approximately six months. However, current market conditions will likely not follow this relationship as many producers have already announced significant reductions in capital spending and drilling levels, as well as plans to curtail production. Much of the recent changes in the WTI price will continue to affect production later this year and throughout 2021. EIA’s forecast 0.8 million bpd decline in US crude oil production in 2021 would be the largest annual decline in US crude oil production on record.

EIA forecasts GoM production to remain relatively flat, averaging 1.9 million bpd in 2020 and 2021, nearly unchanged from its 2019 average. In addition, EIA expects no cancellation in announced GoM projects for 2020 and 2021. EIA forecasts that crude oil production from Alaska will remain at an average of 460 000 bpd in 2020 and that it will increase slightly in 2021.

EIA’s crude oil production forecast is highly uncertain given the still-evolving impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation efforts and the resulting economic effects. In addition, members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other partner countries announced significant production reductions through 2022 which, if realised, would affect oil prices and US producer investment decisions.