據路透社5月17日報道，2020年第二季度，將出現石油工業歷史上最大規模的產量削減和停產。IHS Markit目前預計，在2020年4月至6月期間，將有多達1700萬桶/天的石油產量(其中近1400萬桶/天為原油產量)被削減或停產。

IHS Markit副總裁兼石油市場主管吉姆·伯克哈德：“全球石油供應正在經歷一場停產熱潮，正迅速、殘酷地調整到與需求匹配的較低水平。所有生產國都受制于這種殘酷的市場力量。”

IHS Markit預計，2020年第二季度的石油需求將比一年前減少2200萬桶/天。這種需求的崩潰，加上低油價、存儲限制和政府規定的削減，正在推動全球范圍內非同尋常的石油產量削減和停產現象。

北美和歐佩克成員國，以及獨聯體國家，尤其是俄羅斯，預計將成為減產的主要來源。確切地說，在哪里、為什么以及如何減產是一個復雜的問題，沒有固定的方程式，因為石油的生產環境多種多樣，影響因素也各不相同。

不過，IHS Markit確定了影響減產決定的三個關鍵因素:

一是技術和后勤因素，包括重新恢復生產的復雜性。技術因素與操作復雜性的程度有關，如地形、油田衰竭、油藏驅動、生產系統配置和油藏流體組成。復雜性和油田成熟度會影響重新啟動生產的難易程度，包括產量是否可能永遠損失或只是延遲。其他與技術相關的因素包括健康、安全以及工人的可用性。物流因素包括運輸需求、運輸選擇和石油儲存空間。

二是財務方面的因素。包括營業利潤率、當前油價水平、油價的未來預期、運營商的財務狀況、資金可用性和其他支出選擇，如決定將資金用于其他項目。

三是監管和合同條件因素。這些條件包括確保遵守政府的關井要求、政府調整生產的命令和合同義務。遵守歐佩克協議削減產量的政府命令就屬于這一類。提供伴生氣的義務也是可能影響生產決策的合同條件。對于與下游資產(如煉油廠和石化工廠)整合的上游業務，下游市場狀況和下游資產需求可能會影響有關上游產出的決策，特別是當這些資產歸聯合所有時。

保羅·馬克威爾表示:“在哪里、為什么以及如何減產的問題上，技術、后勤、監管、合同和財務狀況的廣泛差異意味著沒有單一的答案。但在目前的市場環境下，減產的目標非常明確，且全球都要參與。”

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Global oil production expected to be cut by as much as 17m BPD in Q2 – IHS Markit

The second quarter of 2020 will see the largest volume of liquids production cuts, including shut-in production, in the history of the oil industry.

IHS Markit now expects much as 17 MMb/d total liquids output (which includes nearly 14 MMb/d of crude oil production) to be cut or shut-in during the period between April and June 2020.

“The Great Shut-In, a rapid and brutal adjustment of global oil supply to a lower level of demand is underway. All producing countries are subject to the same brutal market forces. Some will be impacted more than others. But there is nowhere to hide.” – Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of oil markets, IHS Markit.

IHS Markit expects oil demand in the second quarter of 2020 to be 22 MMb/d less than a year ago. This collapse in demand combined with low oil prices, storage constraints and government ordered cuts are driving what is an extraordinary level of liquids production cuts and shut-ins around the world.

North America and OPEC members, as well as countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States—particularly Russia—are expected to be the source of most of the production cuts.

Exactly where, why and how supply cuts will take place is a complex matter. There is no fixed equation. Oil is produced in a wide variety of environments, which means there is no fixed equation and decision factors vary.

However, IHS Markit has identified three key factors that shape production cut decisions:

Technical and logistical factors—including restart complexity: Technical factors relate to the degree of operational complexity such as terrain, field depletion, reservoir drive, production system configuration and reservoir fluid composition. Complexity and field maturity influence how easy or difficult restarting production could be, including whether output could be forever lost or simply deferred. Other technical-related factors are health, safety, and worker availability. Logistical factors are offtake demand, transport options, and oil storage availability.

Financial considerations: These include operating margins, current oil price levels, future expectations of the oil price, financial health of the operator, capital availability and alternative spending options—such as deciding to spend money on other projects.

Regulatory and contractual conditions: These include ensuring compliance with government requirements for shutting-in wells, government orders to adjust production, and contractual obligations. Government orders to comply with the OPEC+ agreement to cut production fall into this category. Obligation to deliver associated gas (i.e. gas that is produced as byproduct from a crude oil well) is an example of a contractual condition that could impact production decisions. For upstream operations that are integrated with downstream assets—such as refineries and petrochemical facilities—downstream market conditions and needs of downstream assets could impact decisions about upstream output, especially when the assets are under combined ownership.

“When it comes to the where, why and how of production cuts, the wide range of technical, logistical, regulatory, contractual, and financial conditions means there is no single set of answers. But under these market conditions, it is pretty clear where production will be cut. Nearly everywhere.” – Paul Markwell, vice president, global upstream oil and gas, IHS Markit.