據4月20日OGJ報道，定于4月21日到期的西得克薩斯中質原油期貨(WTI)價格暴跌至負38美元/桶，遠低于1983年3月31日創下的近月合約最低值10.42美元/桶。

這一價格是人們擔心俄克拉荷馬州庫欣市的主要存儲中心即將達到滿負荷運行的情況下制定的。

數月來，一直有關于存儲容量在5月中旬將達到最大容量的警告。由于5月合約到期，無倉儲條件的交易者不能再接受批量交貨，而有倉儲條件的交易者則樂于做空市場。

Rystad Energy石油市場分析師路易絲?迪克森（Louise Dickson）表示：“這就像試圖解釋一些前所未有的、看似不真實的事情！負油價最簡單的解釋是，由于石油的儲量即將達到上限，中游市場的參與者現在向“買家”支付費用，以便在達到實際儲油量上限時能將石油運走。為此他們付出了高昂的代價！”

“對于一些運營商而言，現在停產甚至破產可能損失能更小，而不是貼錢來售出他們生產的產品。貿易商一直在大量搶購低價石油，并把庫存填滿，而現在，西德克薩斯中質原油和庫欣中質原油的庫存已經達到了物理極限——我們估計只剩下2100萬桶的免費存儲。”

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)全球能源戰略董事總經理邁克爾?特蘭(Michael Tran)表示：“沒有什么可以阻止現貨市場在短期內進一步大幅下跌。煉油廠正以歷史性的速度拒絕原油，隨著美國的存儲水平飆升至極限，將會進一步地影響市場，直到我們跌至谷底或者疫情結束，以先到者為準，但看起來更像是前者。”

舒曉玲 摘譯自 OGJ

原文如下：

WTI plunges into negative territory

The May West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, due to expire Apr. 21, plunged into negative territory at minus $38/bbl—far below the previous all-time front-month contract low of $10.42/bbl set on Mar. 31, 1983.

The price comes amid fears that the key storage center in Cushing, Okla., will soon approach capacity.

For months, there have been warnings about storage hitting max capacity in mid-May. Traders without access to storage can no longer accept volume deliveries as the May contract expires and traders with storage access are happy to short the market.

“It’s like trying to explain something that is unprecedented and seemingly unreal! The simplest explanation for negative oil prices is that midstream players are now paying ‘buyers’ to take oil volumes away as the physical storage limit will be reached. And they are paying top dollar!” said Louise Dickson an oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.

“That pricey shut-ins or even bankruptcies could now be cheaper for some operators, instead of paying tens of dollars to get rid of what they produce. Traders have been gobbling up cheap oil and pumping storage full, and now, in the case of WTI and Cushing, storage has reached a physical limit - we estimated that there was only 21 million bbl of free storage left.”

“There is little to prevent the physical market from the further acute downside path over the near term,” said Michael Tran, managing director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Refiners are rejecting barrels at a historic pace and with US storage levels sprinting to the brim, market forces will inflict further pain until either we hit rock bottom, or COVID clears, whichever comes first, but it looks like the former.”