據原油新聞2020年3月9日倫敦報道，國際能源署（IEA）周一在巴黎表示，由于冠狀病毒疫情爆發以及“要求”歐佩克產油國把他們假設產出水平日減350萬桶至日產2500萬桶，全球第一季度石油日需求量同比將減少250萬桶。

IEA在其月度石油市場報告中預測，基于下半年“接近正常”的需求，全球今年全年石油日需量將減少9萬桶，為2009年以來的首次年度下降，但IEA同時也承認存在很大的不確定性。

在設定不同的高油價和低油價情景后，IEA表示，在“悲觀”的低油價情景下，今年全球石油日需求量可能減少73萬桶。

IEA估計，第一季度“要求”歐佩克或對歐佩克原油的需要比去年第一季度日減470萬桶。就今年全年而言，要求歐佩克日產2730萬桶原油。

基于冠狀病毒疫情爆發導致的預期需求下降以及運輸需求停滯不前，IEA在發布名為《石油2020》的中期石油市場報告時還把其到2025年的5年石油需求增長預測下調至95萬桶/天。

李峻 編譯自 原油新聞

原文如下：

Global oil demand to plunge 2.5 mil b/d in Q1 on coronavirus, says IEA

Global oil demand is set to fall 2.5 million b/d in the first quarter compared with a year earlier due to the coronavirus outbreak, with the "call" on OPEC producers falling to 25 million b/d, 3.5 million b/d below their assumed output level, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

In its monthly oil market report, the IEA forecast a full-year reduction in demand of 90,000 b/d in 2020, the first annual fall since 2009, based on "close to normal" demand in the second half of the year, but acknowledged high levels of uncertainty.

Setting out alternative high and low scenarios, it said global oil demand could drop by 730,000 b/d this year in a "pessimistic" low-case scenario.

Its estimate of the "call" on OPEC in Q1, or need for OPEC crude, was 4.7 million b/d lower than for Q1 2019. For 2020 as a whole, it put the call on OPEC at 27.3 million b/d.

Based on reduced expectations resulting from the coronavirus outbreak, as well as stagnating transport demand, the IEA also cut its five-year oil demand growth estimate out to 2025 to 950,000 b/d annually, as it published its separate medium-term oil market report, titled 'Oil 2020.'